Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics: Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
JETEM/계량경제학보/計量經濟學報/JKES
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society

Does Inflation Uncertainty Increase with the Level of Inflation?

Vol.17, No.4, December , 45–70


English Version |  Korean Version
  •   (Ajou University)

  •   (Hansung University)

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Abstract  

Based on the the dispersion of survey-based individual inflation forecasts of Samsung Economic Research Institute, we have tested the hypothesis of Friedman (1977), which states that inflation uncertainty increases at higher level of inflation. We have used quarterly consumer price index data from the 1st Quarter of 1975 to 1st Quater of 2002. We found that inflation uncertainty increases with the level of inflation. This finding is consistent with the previous results which employed conditional variance from GARCH-type models as indicators of inflation uncertainty. Our result implies that a stable low inflation reduces not only inflation variability but also discrepancies in the inflation forecasts among individuals.


Keywords
   Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, GARCH

JEL classification codes
   E31, E58
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