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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
An Endogenous Regime Switching Model for Realized Volatility
Vol.27, No.4, December 2016, 73–97
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Sejung Kim
(Korea Institute of Finance)
Heejoon Han
(Department of Economics, Sungkyunkwan University)
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Abstract
This paper introduces and analyzes a new model for realized volatility that accommodates endogenous regime switching. The model is based on the heterogeneous autoregressive model and allows for two-state regime switching. Importantly, a current shock to the realized volatility affects the regime switching in the next period. We apply the model to the realized volatility of the daily S$&$P 500 Index return series. The estimation result shows that the short-term volatility component is the most influential in the high volatility regime while the long-term volatility component is dominant in the low volatility regime. Moreover, the model significantly outperforms existing models in within-sample fitting.
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Keywords
realized volatility, endogenous regime switching, heterogeneous autoregressive model |
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