Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics: Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
JETEM/계량경제학보/計量經濟學報/JKES
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society

Asymptotic Property of Least Squares Estimators for Explosive Autoregressive Models with a Drift

Vol.32, No.4, December , 1–12



  •   (Ewha Womans University)

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Abstract  

We study asymptotic inferences of the OLS estimator in the first order autoregressive model with an explosive root and a nonzero drift. Recent literatures focus on driftless model in dealing with explosive parameter in relation with financial bubbles detection. We consider an extension by allowing a non-zero drift, where the process behaves as a linear time trend during the non- bubble period, and it exhibits an exponential trend during the explosive era. Consistency of the least squares estimator and of the right-tailed coefficient-based Dickey-Fuller unit root test are shown in case of the presence of drift term.


Keywords
   Explosive Root, Drift, Consistency, Unit Root Test

JEL classification codes
   C13, C22
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