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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
Nonstationary Volatility Regressions
Vol.33, No.2, June 2022, 75–95
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Jihyun Kim
(Sungkyunkwan University)
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Abstract
A popular approach to forecast variance is to use the fitted value
of a simple OLS autoregression of realized variance measures. However, many
financial returns are known to have highly persistent and possibly nonstationary
volatilities. Under the nonstationarity, the asymptotic behaviors of the OLS estimators
are unclear. We consider the autoregressions with spot, integrated, and
realized variance measures when the spot variance process is nonstationary, and
derive the asymptotic properties of the OLS estimators of the autoregressions. In
particular, the asymptotic biases of the OLS estimators for the regressions with
the integrated and realized variances are obtained. We then consider a feasible
instrumental variable (IV) approach to reduce the bias of the OLS estimator,
where the instrument equals the lagged value of the variable of interest, and show
that the feasible IV estimator obtained from the realized variance is asymptotically
equivalent to the infeasible OLS estimator obtained from the regression
with the spot variance. Simulation results corroborate the theoretical findings of
the paper.
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Keywords
volatility; autoregression; nonstationarity |
JEL classification codes
C13, C22 |
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