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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
Bayesian Inference for continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility models
Vol.33, No.3, September 2022, 75–119
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TaeHyung Kim
(Seoul National University)
JeongMin Park
(Hanbat National University)
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Abstract
We propose a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
for continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility models and
demonstrate the performance of our algorithm through simulation experiments
and empirical analyses. Our algorithm exploits the normal distribution approximation
of the posterior density of conditional variance using the one-step Newton-
Raphson algorithm. Our algorithm can be applied not only to the continuous
time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility model but also to the continuous
time stochastic volatility models of which the marginal probability density
functions or the probability kernels of them are known. We present an empirical
analysis results of the Feller square-root stochastic volatility model as well
as the continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility model as an
exhibition of the generality of our MCMC algorithm.
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Keywords
continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility model, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, one-step Newton-Raphson algorithm, Feller square-root stochastic volatility model |
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