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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
Can Lessons Learned from Past Economic Crises Help Predict Future Economic Crises?
Vol.33, No.2, June 2022, 96–111
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Chirok Han
(Korea University)
Kwanho Shin
(Korea University)
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Abstract
Based on experience of Korea’s two recent economic crises in 1997
and 2008, we investigate if lessons learned from past economic crises can help
predict future economic crises. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection
operator (lasso)-logit model, we find that the symptoms in the pre-1997 crisis
period do not appear before the 2008 crisis. This finding suggests that the 2008
crisis could not be predicted using lessons learned from the precedent crisis.
We also attempted to answer an even more hypothetical question of whether the
first crisis could have been predicted if lessons from the second crisis had already
leaned. Our findings suggest that the 1997 crisis could have been predicted using
lessons learned from the 2008 crisis. Overall, our findings imply that factors that
cause the future crisis encompass those of the past crisis, but it is difficult to
predict a future crisis armed only with experience of a past crisis.
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Keywords
Economic Crises, Lasso, Lessons, Logit, Prediction |
JEL classification codes
E17, E32, G01 |
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