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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
Return Predictability using an Endogenous Regime Switching Model
Vol.33, No.1, March 2022, 1–27
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Chang Sik Kim
(Sungkyunkwan University)
Minsoo Jeong
(Yonsei University Mirae Campus)
Nayul Kim
(Ohio State University)
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Abstract
This paper examines whether stock excess return predictability is
dependent upon the stock market volatility. The paper introduces a two-state
regime switching model with endogenous feedback effect for the stock return
predictability test. To model regime switching, this paper adopted a new approach
proposed by Chang et al. (2017), allowing an endogenous feedback effect
channel through which the underlying time series affect the next period volatility
regime. This paper shows that modeling such a channel is important in the
return predictability context to incorporate the leverage effect. Monte Carlo simulation
results demonstrated that additional power gain and bias improvement
could be achieved in the endogenous regime swithcing (ERS) model, compared
to the conventional Markov switching model. The empirical test results using
the ERS model indicate that none of the tested predictors have significant predictive
power when stock returns are highly volatile. However, the dividend-price
ratio and macro variables such as T-bill rate and term spread had significant predictability,
at least in the low volatility regime.
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Keywords
Predictive regression, Regime switching model, Endogenous feedback effect, Time-varying volatility |
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