Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics: Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
JETEM/계량경제학보/計量經濟學報/JKES
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society

How Well Do the Pre-stated Intentions Predict Actual Visit Behaviors for Regional Attractions?

Vol.36, No.1, March , 77–110



  •   (Korea Culture and Tourism Institute)

  •   (Chung-Ang University)

  •   (Korea Culture and Tourism Institute)

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Abstract  

This article examines the extent to which survey respondents’ stated intentions to visit regional attractions predict their actual visit behaviors. To evaluate this relationship empirically, the article constructs a unique dataset that tracks the same respondents for three consecutive years and records the change of intentions over time and their actual visit behaviors. The empirical results show that intentions strongly predict visiting behaviors even though intentions change significantly over time. Moreover, there are substantial differences in the factors that influence intentions and behaviors, suggesting that analyzing intentions data alone without behavior data may be misleading. The article presents further regression results that verify the robustness of our findings with various regional attractions such as amusement parks, beaches, and forests. The implications of these results are consistent with the article’s main findings.


Keywords
   Demand forecasting, intention-behavior gap, logistic regression, predictability.

JEL classification codes
   C23, D91, P25, L83, Z32.
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