Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics: Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
JETEM/계량경제학보/計量經濟學報/JKES
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society

Bankruptcy Prediction for Listed Companies in Korea Using Machine Learning and Oversampling Methods

Vol.36, No.2, June , 59–82


English Version |  Korean Version
  •   (NICE P&I)

  •   (Sungkyunkwan University)

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Abstract  

This study compares the performance of statistical models and various machine learning methods in predicting corporate bankruptcy using financial and macroeconomic data from publicly listed companies. It also analyzes the effectiveness of oversampling methods in addressing the class imbalance problem. The empirical analysis employs logistic regression, random forest, XGBoost (extreme gradient boosting), and deep neural networks, along with oversampling techniques such as SMOTE (synthetic minority over-sampling technique) and ADASYN (adaptive synthetic sampling). The results show that XGBoost delivers the most accurate and balanced predictive performance across both the original dataset and the oversampled datasets. In contrast, logistic regression exhibits high recall but limited practical applicability due to its low precision. These findings suggest that combining oversampling techniques with machine learning models such as XGBoost provides a more effective and practical approach to bankruptcy prediction in the context of imbalanced data.


Keywords
   Corporate bankruptcy, bankruptcy prediction, machine learning, imbalanced data, SMOTE, ADASYN.

JEL classification codes
   C01, C83, G33.
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