Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics: Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
JETEM/계량경제학보/計量經濟學報/JKES
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society

Bayesian Inference for continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility models

Vol.33, No.3, September , 75–119



  •   (Seoul National University)

  •   (Hanbat National University)

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Abstract  

We propose a new Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility models and demonstrate the performance of our algorithm through simulation experiments and empirical analyses. Our algorithm exploits the normal distribution approximation of the posterior density of conditional variance using the one-step Newton- Raphson algorithm. Our algorithm can be applied not only to the continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility model but also to the continuous time stochastic volatility models of which the marginal probability density functions or the probability kernels of them are known. We present an empirical analysis results of the Feller square-root stochastic volatility model as well as the continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility model as an exhibition of the generality of our MCMC algorithm.


Keywords
   continuous time GARCH diffusion limit stochastic volatility model, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, one-step Newton-Raphson algorithm, Feller square-root stochastic volatility model

JEL classification codes
   C11, C12, C22
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