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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
Non-Markovian Regime-Switching Models
Vol.34, No.4, December 2023, 115–148
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Chang-Jin Kim
(University of Washington)
Jaeho Kim
(Sogang University)
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Abstract
To date, almost all extensions and applications of Hamilton’s (1989)
regime switching model have been based on the assumption that the latent regimeindicator
variable follows a Markovian switching process. This paper doubts the
universal validity of this assumption and develops an MCMC algorithm for estimation
of the non-Markovian regime switching model which employs an autoregressive
continuous latent variable in specifying the dynamics of the discrete
latent regime-indicator variable within the Probit specification. We show that, in
spite of the non-Markovian nature of the discrete regime indicator variable, the
Markovian property of this continuous latent variable allows us to successfully
estimate the model. Our empirical results suggest that, for modeling volatility of
the stock return, the non-Markovian switching model is strongly preferred to the
Markovian switching model. However, for modeling the regime-switching nature
of the business cycle based on real GDP, the convention of assuming Markovian
switching seems to be valid.
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Keywords
Non-markovian regime switching, Markovian regime switching, exogenous switching, endogenous switching |
JEL classification codes
C11, C22 |
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