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Journal of Economic Theory and Econometrics
Journal of the Korean Econometric Society
On the Connection between the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates and Risk Neutrality
Vol.17, No.1, March 2006, 23–38
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Jaeho Cho
(College of Business Administration, Seoul National University)
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Abstract
Using the non-expected recursive utility function of Epstein and Zin (1989), this paper re-examines the connection between the expectations hypothesis of the term structure theory and risk neutrality in three-date general equilibria. Major findings are: (i) To generate stochastic future interest rates in risk neutral economies, disentangling agents' two disparate preference components - intertemporal substitution and risk aversion - is critically important; (ii) As a result, term premia are non-zero and thus the expectations hypothesis does not hold under risk neutrality. These non-zero term premia are characterized as compensations for the investor being averse to intertemporal substitution.
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Keywords
Term Structure, Expectations Hypothesis, Risk Neutrality, Non-expected Utility |
JEL classification codes
E43, G12 |
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